Hurricane María’s Precipitation Signature in Puerto Rico: A Conceivable Presage of Rains to Come

Abstract

The effects of global climate change on the intensity of tropical cyclones are yet to be fully understood due to the variety of factors that affect storm intensity, the limited time spans of existing records, and the diversity of metrics by which intensity is characterized. The 2017 North Atlantic hurricane season induced record-breaking economic losses and caused hundreds of fatalities, and for many represents a presage of what the future holds under warmer tropical sea surface temperatures. This article focuses on one such major hurricane, María, and answers the question of how this event compares to the historical record of tropical storms that have assailed the island of Puerto Rico since 1898. Comparisons relied on interpolated weather station total rainfall and maximum 24-h rainfall intensities. María proved to have the greatest 24-h rain intensities among all storms recorded in Puerto Rico, yielding maximum 24-h recurrence intervals greater than 250 years for about 8% of the island.