A 69 long noncoding RNA signature predicts relapse and acts as independent prognostic factor in pediatric AML

Abstract

Risk stratification using genetics and minimal residual disease has allowed for an increase in the cure rates of pediatric acute myeloid leukemia (pedAML) to up to 70% in contemporary protocols. Nevertheless, ~30% of patients still experience relapse, indicating a need to optimize stratification strategies. Recently, long noncoding RNA (lncRNA) expression has been shown to hold prognostic power in multiple cancer types. Here, we aimed at refining relapse prediction in pedAML using lncRNA expression. We built a relapse-related lncRNA prognostic signature, named AMLlnc69, using 871 transcriptomes of patients with pedAML obtained from the Therapeutically Applicable Research to Generate Effective Treatments repository. We identified a 69 lncRNA signature AMLlnc69 that is highly predictive of relapse risk (c-index = 0.73), with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values for predicting the 1-, 2-, and 3-year relapse-free survival (RFS) of 0.78, 0.77, and 0.77, respectively. The internal validation using a bootstrap method (resampling times = 1000) resulted in a c-index of 0.72 and AUC values for predicting the 1-, 2-, and 3-year RFS of 0.77, 0.76, and 0.76, respectively. Through a Cox regression analysis, AMLlnc69, nucleophosmin mutation, and white blood cell at diagnosis were identified as independent predictors of RFS. Finally, a nomogram was build using these 2 parameters, showing a c-index of 0.80 and 0.71 after bootstrapping (n = 1000). In conclusion, the identified AMLlnc69 will, after prospective validation, add important information to guide the management of patients with pedAML. The nomogram is a promising tool for easy stratification of patients into a novel scheme of relapse-risk groups.