COVID-19 and inequality in reading outcomes in South Africa: PIRLS 2016 and 2021

Abstract

This paper examines the effect of COVID-19 on learning loss and learning inequality in South Africa using 2016 and 2021 Grade 4 PIRLS datasets. On average, South African Grade 4 reading achievement declined by 31 PIRLS points from 320 in 2016 to 288 in 2021, equivalent to a decline of 0.29 standard deviations or 50–60% of a year of learning. The gap between top-achieving and low-achieving students widened nationally and within schools, while the percentage of very low-achieving students (achieving less than 200 PIRLS points) doubled from 13.4 to 26.5%. Despite having the highest levels of socio-economic inequalities in reading achievement of all participating countries before the pandemic, reading inequality widened further during the pandemic. Reading achievement for students in the wealthiest 20% of schools did not increase, whilst it declined significantly for students in the poorest 70% of schools, with greater declines observed for boys than girls. These findings are quite robust to adjusting for a combination of sampling variation and different testing dates in 2016 compared to 2021. An item-level analysis also supports the national PIRLS score declines, with lower scores in 2021 on 94% of items common across 2016 and 2021. A higher percentage of students scored zero on comprehension passages in 2021 than in 2016, which is partly explained by a significant rise in non-attempted items.