Predictions of new students interest in entering the XXX University with statistic modeling

Abstract

XXX is the establishment of one of Muhammadiyah's charitable businesses in the field of education. From the beginning of its formation on May 25, 1980 until now XXX has been able to open 18 study programs plus other study programs at the Faculty of Health and the Faculty of Engineering which are planned to be opened. The addition of the study program is expected to filter the number of new student interests to become XXX residents. But unfortunately, the many universities in Gresik were opened, making XXX have to work extra in attracting new students. This research will only be focused on single forecasting on the number of new student interests in several study programs and one university. In the descriptive statistical results, it was obtained the results that Management Study Program contributed the most interest in entering students and as Study Programs which were not new, Fisheries Cultivation Study Program contributed the least interest of students entering. The results of cluster analysis were formed by 8 groups. Group 5 consisting of Management Study Program, Industrial Engineering and PGSD contributed the most interest in terms of the average count per study program. Forecast with Moving Average also proves that this group has a tendency to rise. ARIMA results (1 0 0) for one University produces a value that falls smoothly with a less significant value, but if left unchecked it can also harm the campus.