A Hybrid Wavelet-Arima Model for Standardized Precipitation Index Drought Forecasting

Abstract

ABSTRACTThis paper proposes A Hybrid Wavelet-Auto-Regressive Integrated MovingAverage (W-ARIMA) model to explore the ability of the hybrid model over an ARIMAmodel. It combines two methods, a Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) and ARIMAmodel using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) drought data for forecastingdrought modeling development. SPI data from January 1954 to December 2008 used wasdivided into two - (80%/20% for training/testing respectively). The results were comparedwith the conventional ARIMA model with Mean Square Error (MSE) and Mean AverageError (MAE) as an error measure. The results of the proposed method achieved the bestforecasting performance.