Enhancing Malaria Control Strategy: Optimal Control and Cost-Effectiveness Analysis on the Impact of Vector Bias on the Efficacy of Mosquito Repellent and Hospitalization

Abstract

This paper focuses on the impact of mosquito biting bias on the success of malaria intervention strategies. The initial model is developed considering the existence of symptomatic and asymptomatic humans, as well as vector bias. The model is then analyzed to demonstrate how the malaria-endemic equilibrium always exists and is globally asymptotically stable if the basic reproduction number is larger than one. On the other hand, malaria will always go extinct in the population if the basic reproduction number is less than one. For intervention analysis, the model is extended by considering mosquito repellent and hospitalization as control strategies. The control reproduction number is shown analytically. Using the Pontryagin maximum principle, we characterize our optimal control problem. Several scenarios are conducted to observe the dynamics of control variables under different circumstances. We found that the intervention of mosquito repellent and hospitalization together is the most cost-effective strategy to reduce the spread of malaria. Furthermore, we have shown that the more biased the vector attracted to infected individuals, the higher the cost needed to implement the control strategy.