Enhanced Rates of Regional Warming and Ocean Acidification After Termination of Large-Scale Ocean Alkalinization

Abstract

Termination effects of large-scale artificial ocean alkalinization (AOA) have received little attention because AOA was assumed to pose low environmental risk. With the Max Planck Institute Earth system model, we use emission-driven AOA simulations following the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5). We find that after termination of AOA warming trends in regions of the Northern Hemisphere become ∼50% higher than those in RCP8.5 with rates similar to those caused by termination of solar geoengineering over the following three decades after cessation (up to 0.15 K/year). Rates of ocean acidification after termination of AOA outpace those in RCP8.5. In warm shallow regions where vulnerable coral reefs are located, decreasing trends in surface pH double (0.01 units/year) and the drop in the carbonate saturation state (Ω) becomes up to 1 order of magnitude larger (0.2 units/year). Thus, termination of AOA poses higher risks to biological systems sensitive to fast-paced environmental changes than previously thought.