GA-ARIMA Model-Based Analysis of Arrival time at Bus Stop

Abstract

Background With the ever-changing urban development and a growing number of vehicles, the road congestion problem has become a hotspot issue at present. As an important constituent part of road traffic system, public traffic system has become an effective force relieving the traffic congestion problem. Objective To explore how to better reduce the prediction error of arrival time at bus stop on basis of actual GPS bus data. Method The arrival time at bus stop was analyzed based on GPS data, a time series optimization model based on genetic algorithm was established, followed by the prediction error analysis of arrival time at bus stop. Result The prediction result of GA-ARIMA model is superior to that of the traditional time series model, which indicates the effectiveness of this model.