Future climate change risk in the US Midwestern ski industry

Abstract

Climate change is an evolving business reality in the ski industry, with recent trends toward shorter ski seasons and emerging climate risk disclosure requirements. Climate change impacts under low- to high-emission futures are examined at 99 ski areas in the American Midwest market with snowmaking. Mid-century season losses range from −25% in a low-emission scenario (SSP245), to −29% under moderate-emissions (SSP370), and − 38% with high-emissions (SSP585). Depending on demand response, utilization intensity could increase between 23 and 40% from the current 4.8 skiers/per acre-day with implications for crowding and visitor experience at ski areas still in operation. Highlighting the importance of low-emission futures, by late-century, transformational impacts in high-emission scenarios would largely eliminate this regional market. The results are compared with previous studies that neglected snowmaking as a climate risk management strategy and thereby substantially overestimated the impact of mid-century and low-emission scenarios.