Evaluation of the discriminative capacity of anthropometric indicators and their predictive relationship of diabetes in health workers of the University Hospital of Guayaquil-Ecuador

Abstract

Objectives: To evaluate the discriminative ability to predict diabetes with anthropometric and biochemical indicators and background. Methods: The sampling carried out was census and the sample consisted of 104 workers. A longitudinal study was carried out to evaluate the discriminative ability to predict diabetes with the anthropometric, biochemical, and antecedent indicators, using two models, the analysis of the ROC curves and binary logistic regression. Results: By analyzing the ROC curves, the abdominal circumference obtained greater predictive discriminative power (AUC = 0.747; p <0.001; CI: 0.624-0.870), compared to glycemia (AUC = 0.749; p <0.001; CI: 0.645-0.852) and the waist-height index (AUC = 0.737; p = 0.001; CI: 0.638-0.836). Pathological history is included in the logistic regression equation P(Y=1) = (1+e0,693+1,897APP)-1 to predict the risk of developing diabetes in the future. Conclusions: The abdominal circumference obtained the highest discriminative power, followed by the pathological history.