Field warming experiments shed light on the wheat yield response to temperature in China

Abstract

Wheat growth is sensitive to temperature, but the effect of future warming on yield is uncertain. Here, focusing on China, we compiled 46 observations of the sensitivity of wheat yield to temperature change (S Y,T, yield change per °C) from field warming experiments and 102 S Y,T estimates from local process-based and statistical models. The average S Y,T from field warming experiments, local process-based models and statistical models is-0.7±7.8(±s.d.)% per °C,-5.7±6.5% per °C and 0.4±4.4% per °C, respectively. Moreover, S Y,T is different across regions and warming experiments indicate positive S Y,T values in regions where growing-season mean temperature is low, and water supply is not limiting, and negative values elsewhere. Gridded crop model simulations from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project appear to capture the spatial pattern of S Y,T deduced from warming observations. These results from local manipulative experiments could be used to improve crop models in the future.