Identifying key federal, state, and private lands strategies for achieving 30 × 30 in the United States

Abstract

Achieving ambitious goals to conserve at least 30% of U.S. lands and waters by 2030 (“30 × 30”) will require a multiscale baseline understanding of current protections, key decisionmakers, and policy tools for moving forward. To help conservationists and decisionmakers support the science-based call to address the biodiversity and climate crises, we analyze the current spatial patterns of biodiversity and carbon in the United States relative to protected areas and present a typology for classifying land contributions toward the 30 × 30 goals. Analyses demonstrate that 30% is achievable nationally, but spatial heterogeneity highlights the need for tailored approaches from a mix of authorities at federal, regional, and state scales. Current land protections rarely overlap with areas essential for conserving imperiled species biodiversity and mitigating climate change. One-fifth of unprotected biodiversity hotspots and over 8% carbon-rich areas face a higher risk of land conversion by 2050. In contrast, 3.6% of key biodiversity areas and 15.6% of carbon-rich areas may experience higher climate exposure. Policy considerations for making practical, substantive progress toward ecologically meaningful achievement of 30 × 30 goal include the need for significant investments in public and private lands conservation.