Time series analysis, modelling and assessment of optimal exploitation of the nemanja karst springs, Serbia

Abstract

The time series analysis was applied in the case-study of a karst aquifer in Serbia in order to study its functioning, hydrodynamic behavior and hydraulic properties. Focusing on the definition of groundwater budget, due to very complex functioning of karst systems the correlation and spectral analyses were used to emphasize the importance of transforming the input data - precipitation to effective infiltration. The characterization of karst aquifer was further improved by separating the output component - discharge to base-flow and fast-flow components. Additionally, the importance of these transformations was proved in application of the regression model for the simulation of discharges based on the effective infiltration functions. A recharge-discharge model was applied in accordance with the active groundwater management, defining optimal "exploitable" regimes, which included the analyses of storage changes in karst water reservoirs under natural conditions, and calculation of the potential exploitation conditions.