Perceptions of climate change and health implications in Nigeria: a planetary health perspective using Afrobarometer data

Abstract

Climate change poses significant threats to human health, ecosystems, and socioeconomic stability, particularly in low- and middle-income countries such as Nigeria. Using a Planetary Health lens, this study explores public perceptions of climate change and its health implications in Nigeria, drawing on nationally representative data from Afrobarometer Round 9. It investigates how awareness, and health-related perception differ across region, hence shaping climate-responsive policies. A cross-sectional design was applied using secondary data from Afrobarometer’s Nigeria survey. The dataset includes geocoded responses capturing climate perceptions, experiences of extreme weather events, and perceived health effects. Descriptive statistics summarized demographic characteristics, while binary logistic regression examined predictors of climate change awareness and perceived health impacts. Spatial analysis using GIS tools in R mapped climate awareness across Nigeria’s geopolitical zones. Spatial autocorrelation (Moran’s I) and hotspot analysis identified clusters of awareness. Findings show substantial demographic and regional disparities. Mean age and gender composition varied across states. Education levels peaked in Imo (3.34) but were lowest in Kebbi (1.50), Katsina (1.63). Climate change awareness ranged from 0 to 87.5%, highest in southern urbanized states and lowest in northern states. Perceptions of climate-related health impacts including heat illnesses, vector-borne diseases, respiratory disorders, and malnutrition ranged from 1.90 to 4.71 on a Likert scale. Logistic regression confirmed significant predictors of awareness to include gender with regional effects more pronounced in some states like Abuja, Benue and markedly lower in Zamfara. The model showed excellent fit (χ2 = 311.1, df = 39, p < 0.001; AIC = 1647.1). The study highlights key gaps in climate knowledge that hinder resilience. It recommends inclusive, education-focused, and gender-responsive climate communication strategies aligned with Planetary Health principles to advance sustainable and equitable climate action in Nigeria.