Season of birth is not associated with the risk of early adult death in rural Senegal

Abstract

Background. In a rural area of the Gambia, West Africa, young adults born in the 'hungry' season had a high excess of deaths (mortality ratios (MR): 3.7 from 14.5 years and 10.3 from 25 years, P < 0.0001). Among several potential causal factors, fetal undernutrition was considered the most plausible. This study is a similar analysis of children and young adults living in rural Senegal, close to the Gambia. Methods. A cohort of 9192 subjects born 1962-2001 with prospectively collected dates of birth and death was analysed. MR by season of birth (July-December/January-June) was estimated using Cox's proportional hazards analysis. The nutritional status of non-pregnant women was analysed at monthly intervals 1990-1996. Results. MR by season of birth was slightly greater than 1 during infancy, and close to 1 from 1-5 years and from 5-14.5 years. From 14.5 years old the MR was 0.77 (95% CI: 0.47, 1.25, P = 0.29), compared with 0.53 (95% CI: 0.28, 1.02, P = 0.056) from 20 years and 0.33 (95% CI: 0.09, 1.25, P = 0.10) from 25 years. The weight of women varied strongly by season: means were 3.0-3.9 kg lower at the end of the rainy season (September-November) than during the dry season (February-May, P < 0.001 for each year). Conclusions. This study found no increased risk of death among young adults born during the hungry season in a rural West African area despite large seasonal variations in women's nutritional status. The strongly increased risk in adult Gambians is probably not explained by fetal undernutrition. © International Epidemiological Association 2004; all rights reserved.