Magnitudes and trends in orphanhood among younger persons in the era of HIV/AIDS in South Africa, 2001-2015

Abstract

Information on the magnitude of orphanhood is important from various perspectives. Though not designed for that purpose, orphanhood questions have been used by some studies to infer the magnitude of orphans due to AIDS among younger persons. This study provides an historical overview of the orphanhood questions and estimates the magnitude of orphans in the era of HIV/AIDS in South Africa using an epidemiologic and demographic model. The results suggest that the number of orphans in South Africa may increase to about 1.9 million by 2015 if current trends continue. These figures are lower than estimated by some previous studies.