Potential North American ranges of the invasive crayfishes Faxonius rusticus (rusty crayfish) and Procambarus clarkii (red swamp crayfish) under current and future climate projections

Abstract

Modeling current and future distributions of aquatic invasive species is an important approach for mitigating and preventing invasions in freshwater ecosystems. Two invasive crayfish species of concern in North America are Procambarus clarkii and Faxonius rusticus, which each pose significant biological and economic threats. In this study, we used MaxEnt to model current and future (2050 and 2070) distributions for both species under two climate change scenarios. Our present-day models highlight areas in North America where both species are being under-sampled and likely to thrive, while our future models reveal changes in habitable regions. The future models for P. clarkii reveal general expansion (up to 66.38%) in potential habitat, while models for F. rusticus reveal general contraction (down to-13.62%); however, all future models show northern shifts in potential habitat from the present-day models. Variables related to temperature played the largest role in habitat predictability, underscoring the relationship between climate change and new aquatic invasions. Understanding how different climate change scenarios can influence habitat availability for these two crayfish species can help in targeting management efforts for current populations and preventing future spread.