Examining the relationship between regional economic resilience and epidemiologic spread of COVID-19: evidence from Greece

Abstract

The experience of the COVID-19 pandemic has become a challenge worldwide for reconsidering the complex relationship between epidemiological vulnerability (EV) and regional economic resilience (RER). Building on statistical and empirical analysis, this paper detects that epidemiological vulnerability is positively related to geographical size, urbanization, economic size, and production capacity. The analysis distinguishes between the importance of the contribution of non-land transportation to epidemiological spread at the early stage of the pandemic, and of land transportation at later stages of the pandemic. It detects distinct spatiotemporal patterns in the distribution of epidemiological waves in Greek regions, illustrating a saturated temporal pattern and a “major” geographical configuration following the S-type dynamics of spatial development in Greece. Further, this paper highlights the importance of economies of scale and transportation connectivity in the configuration of the RER-EV nexus, emphasizing the significance of land transport connectivity for the control of neighborhood-scale socioeconomic activities once the pandemic is imported into a region. Finally, the analysis distinguishes land transport connectivity and urbanization degree as determinants related the most to long-term effects in the configuration of the RER-EV nexus and provides insights into the effectiveness of stringent policy measures implemented at the early stage of the pandemic. Overall, beyond its empirical case study, this paper provides a methodological framework to shed more light on a research field growing on the intersection of regional economics and public health and motivate more evidence-based policymaking enhancing the resilience of places in the face of future health crises.