Laying the Foundations to Support a New Global Climate Change Protocol

Abstract

The urgency with which greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced demands a major modification to the existing Kyoto architecture. As part of this modification, the following four groups of nations should be created: (i) an Annex II group of Parties (much like the existing Annex II group); (ii) an Annex I (non-Annex II) group of Parties; (iii) a group consisting exclusively of LDCs; and (iv) an Annex III group of Parties, which would be similar to the existing non-Annex I group minus the LDCs. Post-2020, Annex III countries should initially be subject to fewer and less stringent obligations than Annex I and Annex II nations, with even more leniency given to LDCs to enable them to experience a phase of welfare-increasing growth. That said, any future growth in the per capita GDP of LDCs must be as equitable and efficient as possible, which would be facilitated by domestic implementation of the sustainable development policies outlined in Chapter 3 plus the transfer of funds and technology from the world’s wealthiest nations. All LDCs should be subject to binding emissions targets by 2031. As for Annex III countries, they should be subject to binding emissions targets as of 2021, albeit the required emissions cuts would be far less stringent than those required of Annex I and Annex II nations. Coupled with the transfer of funds and new technologies from Annex I and Annex II nations, these lesser demands would allow Annex III countries to grow their per capita GDP, as required, before making the eventual transition to a steady-state economy. On top of these requirements, various reforms to the present Kyoto institutions and rules are needed to establish an effective post-Kyoto protocol. Much of this chapter involves outlining these reforms, which completes the laying of the foundations to support the new global protocol revealed in Cha