Consequences of exposure to prenatal famine on estimated glomerular filtration rate and risk of chronic kidney disease among survivors of the great Ethiopian famine (1983–85): a historical cohort study

Abstract

Background: The impact of an adverse prenatal environment such as famine exposure on the development of adulthood non-communicable chronic illnesses, including diabetes and hypertension has been well articulated in the recent past and supported by evidence. However, there exist few longitudinal studies conducted on the long term consequences of prenatal famine exposure on adulthood kidney function. Hence, we set out to examine whether prenatal exposure to the Ethiopian Great Famine (1983–1985) was associated with changes in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and the risk of developing chronic kidney disease (CKD) later in adult life. Methods: The study was conducted in 219 famine exposed and 222 non exposed cohorts in Raya Kobo district, North Wollo Zone, Northern Ethiopia. Estimated GFR was computed from standardized serum creatinine using the CKD Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equation. The definition of CKD includes those with an eGFR of less than 60 ml/min/1.73 m2 on at least in two occasions of 90 days apart (with or without markers of kidney damage). Linear and logistic regression analyses were employed to examine the independent effect of prenatal famine exposure on eGFR and CKD respectively. Results: The mean (SD) serum creatinine of exposed and non-exposed groups were 0.78 (0.2) and 0.75 (0.2) respectively. The mean (SD) eGFR of exposed groups was 107.95 (27.49) while the non-exposed 114.48 (24.81) ml/min. In linear regression, the unadjusted model to examine the association between famine exposure and eGFR resulted in a significant negative beta coefficient (β = − 0.124: 95% CI: − 11.43, − 1.64). Adjusting the exposure for outstanding covariates of kidney health, including systolic blood pressure, fasting blood sugar and blood glucose did not alter the inverse relationship (β = −.114 95% CI: − 10.84, − 1.17). In the unadjusted bivariate logistic regression model, famine exposure resulted in nearly 2.7 times higher odds of developing CKD (OR: 2.68, 95% CI: 1.16, 6.2). The odds remained equivalent after adjusting for systolic blood pressure, fasting blood glucose and body mass index (OR = 2.61: 95% CI: 1.120, 6.09). Conclusion: In the study setting, prenatal exposure to the Great Ethiopian Famine was associated with decreased eGFR and higher risk of developing CKD among survivors. These findings may imply that famine in early life may play a significant role in the development of kidney dysfunction in adulthood.