Diş ti̇caret loji̇sti̇ği̇ni̇n kentsel mekâna etki̇si̇: Mersi̇n örneği̇ (1)

Abstract

This paper investigates the influence of foreign trade logistics on urban space in Mersin case. Turkey has adapted open economic growth policy after 1980, hence a rapid increase in exports and imports has been observed (Yeldan, 2016). The city of Mersin, host a major port and industrial infrastructure, is one of the most affected cities by the open economy policy in Turkey. This paper provides a statistical and spatial analysis of for measuring the effects of foreign trade on warehousing investments and discusses land use changes in Mersin city. One of the most important indicators of foreign trade is the amount of cargo handled at the port. Granger’s (1988) bidirectional causality model and the Toda and Yamamoto (1995) test which used multivariable application of the model in the time series, are employed to explain the relationship between port volume and the size of the warehouse area in the city. In addition, a logarithmic multiple regression model is employed to measure the influence of handled cargo on warehousing built up area and vice versa. Freight volume in Mersin Port increased by 480% in 1980-2017 period. In the same period, the warehouse area in the city increased by 616%. According to the 3-year delayed bidirectional causality test significant results are obtained. The increase in the amount of discharged cargo can explain any increase in warehouse capacity in 3 year lagged Granger causality model. Model results reveal that there is a bidirectional causality relationship between loading and warehouse built up area. Regression analysis results showed that there are significant bidirectional causality relations among corresponding variables. According to 1 year lagged model 10% increase in loaded cargo in the port generates 1.4% additional warehouse floor area, while 10% of discharged cargo generates 12.08% (R2=0.973) additional space. On the other hand, 10% of increase in warehouse floor are contributes to 7.47% (R2=0.882) increase in loaded cargo, and 6.97% (R2=0.971) increase in discharged cargo in the port. The findings suggest that both models can be employed to estimate warehouse demand as an outcome of foreign trade performance. In addition, results reveal that warehouse capacity has significant contribution to foreign trade performance of the port and the logistics industry. The number of different functions and qualities of depots in the city is a typical indicator of the increase in port handling volume. The master plan, which is the most important tool to control the spatial development of the city, was approved in 1996. Even though the plan proposed limited space for warehouse and logistics activities on the eastern corridor. In the last decades more than planned investments are observed in the city because national trade policy and investment decisions given by the central government had significant influence on trade performance and logistics industry in Mersin City. The corridorplanned landfills in the east of the city showed a scattered development due to lack of planned space. Warehouse and truck park investment decisions of the developers are influenced by the volume of both imports and exports. This paper provides an analytical models and a framework to understand the relation between foreign trade and the demand for warehouse space. Regarding the predictive capacity of models, urban planning can be an effective tool to control urban development regarding logistics industry. Hence, negative externalities caused by those activities can be reduced.