Entropy-based risk control of geological disasters in mountain tunnels under uncertain environments

Abstract

Uncertainty is one of the main sources of risk of geological hazards in tunnel engineering. Uncertainty information not only affects the accuracy of evaluation results, but also affects the reliability of decision-making schemes. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate and control the impact of uncertainty on risk. In this study, the problems in the existing entropy-hazard model such as inefficient decision-making and failure of decision-making are analysed, and an improved uncertainty evaluation and control process are proposed. Then the tolerance cost, the key factor in the decision-making model, is also discussed. It is considered that the amount of change in risk value (R1) can better reflect the psychological behaviour of decision-makers. Thirdly, common multi-attribute decision-making models, such as the expected utility-entropy model, are analysed, and then the viewpoint of different types of decision-making issues that require different decision methods is proposed. The well-known Allais paradox is explained by the proposed methods. Finally, the engineering application results show that the uncertainty control idea proposed here is accurate and effective. This research indicates a direction for further research into uncertainty, and risk control, issues affecting underground engineering works.