Quantifying the sensitivity of maximum, limiting, and potential tropical cyclone intensity to SST: Observations versus the FSU/COAPS global climate model

Abstract

Previous research quantified the sensitivity of limiting intensity to SST for observed tropical cyclones (TCs) and for TCs generated by two global climate models (GCMs). On average, a 1°C increase in sea surface temperature (SST) is associated with a 7.9 m s-1 increase in the statistical upper limit of observed intensity. Conversely, a 1°C increase in SST does not significantly affect the limiting intensity of GCM-generated TCs. The study presented here builds on previous research in two ways: (1) A comparison is made between the statistically defined limiting intensity and the physically defined potential intensity, and (2) a test is performed on the ability of a 0.94°resolution GCM to reproduce the observed statistical relationship between potential intensity and SST. Data from NASA's Modern Era Reanalysis are used to approximate the observed sensitivity of potential intensity to SST for the 1982-2008 time period. Results indicate that the sensitivity of potential intensity to SST is not statistically different from the sensitivity of observed maximum or limiting intensity to SST. This result links the statistically defined sensitivity to the physically based theory of hurricanes. Potential intensity is also estimated from the FSU/COAPS GCM. Although the FSU/COAPS model does not capture the observed sensitivity of TC maximum or limiting intensity to SST, the model reproduces the observed sensitivity of potential intensity to SST. The model generates suitable atmospheric conditions for the development of strong TCs, however strong TCs do not develop, possibly as a result of insufficient resolution. Key Points: Link statistical TC limiting intensity to theoretical TC potential intensity Quantify differences in observed/simulated sensitivities of TC intensity to SST Understand why GCMs miss the sensitivity of hurricane limiting intensity to SST