Regional Tourism Economic Forecasting Model Based on GM Grey Forecasting Method

Abstract

On the basis of regional tourism economic development, this paper uses the entropy method and the coupling coordination model to analyse the comprehensive development level and the degree of coupling coordination between tourism and regional development and uses the GM (1, 1) grey prediction model to forecast the degree of coupling coordination between tourism and regional development in China in the next five years, based on the data related to tourism and regional development in China from 1996 to 2015. The results show that the degree of coupling and coordination between tourism and regional development is steadily increasing, with the coupling level moving from low level coupling to antagonistic stage and the coupling coordination level reaching from low level disorder to good level coordination.