The government revenue–expenditure nexus in Ghana: A wavelet analysis

Abstract

This study explores the nexus among government revenue, government expenditure, and gross domestic product (GDP) across time and/or frequency using a Ghana dataset. It applies the wavelet approaches to investigate the lead-lag nexus, degree of integration and interdependency among public expenditure, public revenue, and gross domestic product (GDP) in the Ghanaian context. The data source is the World Bank and consists of yearly data from 1983 to 2021 yielding 39 observations. While public expenditure and revenue are closely related, and mostly positive throughout both time and frequency, there is a nexus between public spending and revenue at specific intervals and on a regular basis that was bi-directional, bi-causal, and interdependent. Between 1993 and 2021, a bi-directional nexus could be seen; however, most of the arrows pointed to the right. This shows that the co-movements between public spending and revenue are positive and behave similarly as a result. Accordingly, it is anticipated that increased levels of public spending will be met by higher levels of public spending, and vice versa. This is the first application of a wavelet approach to the study of this phenomenon with a Ghana dataset.