Influenza early warning model based on yunqi theory

Abstract

Objective: To establish an early warning model to simulate the outbreak of infl uenza based on weather conditions and Yunqi theory, an ancient calendar theory of Chinese medicine (CM). Methods: Tianjin, a northeastern city in China, was chosen as the region of research and applied the infl uenza-like illness attack rate (ILI)% as the baseline and warning line to determine the severity of infl uenza epidemic. Then, an infl uenza early warning model was constructed based on the theory of rough set and support vector machines (RS-SVM), and the relationship between infl uenza and meteorology was explored through analyzing the monitoring data. Results: The predictive performance of the model was good, which had achieved 81.8% accuracy when grouping the obtained data into three levels that represent no danger, danger of a light epidemic, and danger of a severe epidemic. The test results showed that if the host qi and guest qi were not balanced, this kind of situation was more likely to cause infl uenza outbreaks. Conclusions: The outbreak of infl uenza closely relates to temperature, humidity, visibility, and wind speed and is consistent with some part of CM doctrine. The result also indicates that there is some reasonable evidence in the Yunqi theory. © The Chinese Journal of Integrated Traditional and Western Medicine Press and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2012.