Validation of the Rockall score in upper gastrointestinal tract bleeding in a Colombian tertiary hospital

Abstract

Background – Rockall score is the most widely used prognostic scale for assessing risk of complications from non-varicose upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB). Several studies have been conducted in adult populations with non-varicose UGIB in different parts of the world, with conflicting findings regarding the extent of association between the score and some morbidity and mortality outcomes. Also, there is contro-versy regarding the best cut-off point for the score. Moreover, no studies validating this score in Colombia have been carried out. Objective – To assess the diagnostic performance of the Rockall score in predicting rebleeding and mortality in patients with non-varicose UGIB. Methods – A prospective cohort study was conducted in patients requiring upper gastrointestinal endoscopy (UGIE) for non-varicose bleeding. The pre-and post-endoscopy Rockall scores were calculated and outcomes, including mortality, UGIB-associated mortality and in hospital rebleeding were determined at the 1 and 3-month time points. The association between the scores and these outcomes was assessed using the chi2 or the Fisher test, whereas the discrimination ability of the score was determined using the areas under the ROC curve (AUC). High discrimination ability was con-sidered to exist in cases in which an AUC ≤0.7 with α=0.05 could be rejected. Results – Overall, 177 patients were analyzed. In-hospital outcomes at 1 and 3 months were 12%, 17% and 23% for general mortality, 6%, 12% and 15% for UGIB mortality, and 19%, 30% and 37% for rebleeding. The post-endoscopy Rockall score was associated with the three outcomes at the three time points assessed, while the pre-endoscopy score was only associated with general mortality at the three time points, and rebleeding at 1 and 3 months. Regarding discrimination ability, although the AUC was greater than expected by randomness (0.5) in all cases, only one AUC ≤0.7 was rejected in the post-endoscopy score for in-hospital UGIB mortality (AUC=0.901; 95%CI: 0.845–0.958), at 1 month (AUC=0.836; 95%CI: 0.717–0.954) and at 3 months (AUC=0.869; 95%CI: 0.771–0.967), and for rebleeding at 1 month (AUC=0.793; 95%CI: 0.725–0.861) and at 3 months (AUC=0.806; 95%CI: 0.741–0.871). Conclusion – An association was found between the Rockall score and rebleeding and mortality in patients with non-varicose UGIB. Only the post-endoscopy score had a high predictive ability for rebleeding and UGIB mortality.