Future land use change simulations for the Lepelle River Basin using Cellular Automata Markov model with Land Change Modeller-generated transition areas

Abstract

Background: Land cover/land cover (LULC) change is one of the major contributors to global environmental and climate variations. The ability to predict future LULC is crucial for environmental engineers, civil engineers, urban designers, and natural resources managers for planning activities. Methods: TerrSet Geospatial Monitoring and Modelling System and ArcGIS Pro 2.8 were used to process LULC data for the region of the Lepelle River Basin (LRB) of South Africa. Driver variables such as population density, slope, elevation as well as the Euclidean distances of cities, roads, highways, railroads, parks and restricted areas, towns to the LRB in combination with LULC data were analysed using the Land Change Modeller (LCM) and Cellular-Automata Markov (CAM) model. Results: The results reveal an array of losses (-) and gains (+) for certain LULC classes in the LRB by the year 2040: natural vegetation (+8.5%), plantations (+3.5%), water bodies (-31.6%), bare ground (-8.8%), cultivated land (-29.3%), built-up areas (+10.6%) and mines (+14.4%). Conclusions: The results point to the conversion of land uses from natural to anthropogenic by 2040. These changes also highlight how the potential losses associated with resources such as water that will negatively impact society and ecosystem functioning in the LRB by exacerbating water scarcity driven by climate change. This modelling study provides a decision support system for the establishment of sustainable land resource utilization policies in the LRB.