Potential Climate Impacts of Hydrological Alterations and Discharge Variabilities of the Mura, Drava, and Danube Rivers on the Natural Resources of the MDD UNESCO Biosphere Reserve

Abstract

This study investigated hydrological alterations in the sections of the Mura, Drava, and Danube rivers, which together form a unique river landscape proclaimed by UNESCO as the Transboundary Biosphere Reserve Mura, Drava, and Danube (TBR MDD). A coherent network of 12 major protected areas along the rivers highlights their ecological value, which could be endangered by climate change and consequent environmental changes. Statistical analyses, such as the homogeneity test, Mann–Kendall trend test of monthly and seasonal discharges, and empirical probabilities of daily discharges, were applied to discharge data series (1960–2019) from six hydrological stations prior to the calculation of indicators of hydrologic alteration (IHA). This method could be a helpful tool for recognizing the changes in hydrological regimes that can affect river ecosystems. The 33 indicators were organized into five groups. The results showed a decrease in low pulse duration and increase in rise/fall rates and the number of reversals. From an ecological perspective, the results obtained for the probabilities of long flooding periods were particularly significant. They drastically decreased for all three rivers on their stretches within the reserve. According to IHA modeling results, the river sections analyzed were moderately altered with global indicator values between 0.5 and 0.75. The most pronounced hydrological alterations were associated with the frequency and duration of low and high pulses and the rate and frequency of changes in water condition, which could have a significant impact on the ecological values of the TBR MDD. In addition, results show more pronounced climate impact versus human activities.