A Multi-Spatial Assessment Framework to Geological Hazard for High-Rise Building Project in Metro Manila, Philippines

Abstract

On Metro Manila Earthquake Impact Reduction Study (MMEIRS) conducted from 2002 to 2004 by Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) together with the Philippine Institute for Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) and the Metro Manila Development Authority (MMDA), a worst-case scenario with a 7.2 earthquake magnitude in Makati, would have structural impacts on 50% of infrastructures from partial to heavy damage, 18.3% would be heavily damaged, 32.8% would be partially damaged, and major lifelines and utilities that provide electricity, telephones, and water could be cut off. There will be 2,300 casualties, 7,700 injuries, and 156,000 displacements. Geological hazard threatens the City residents and its attractiveness as the preferred residential and business location in the country. In this study, we model the earthquake risk of high-rise building projects in Global City, located at the eastern portion of Makati City near Marikina Valley Fault System. To accomplish this, we identified important geological hazard-related factors and distributed survey question to experts to gather estimation of the importance of each factor, and Monte Carlo Analytic Hierarchy Process (MCAHP) was used to determine the consistency of the expert's judgment. These factor weights from the MCAHP are applied to the gathered data, and a Quantum GIS software tool was utilized for visualization, producing a geo-hazard map that is color-coded representing weighted-simulation levels of estimated earthquake hazard risks.