System Dynamics Modelling Scenarios for The Import Receiving Infrastructures Capacity Plan & Development in anticipating Future Deficits of Natural Gas Supply in Indonesia

Abstract

Indonesia is one amongst the biggest natural gas reserves country in south East Asia, with total reserve of about 142,71 TSCF in 2018. Indonesian demand for energy is also increasing over the time in line with its economic and population growth. The improved of global consciousness toward the sustainable environmental issues, has led in to the choice over an affordable source of energy with a less carbon footprint. On the other hand the natural gas supply and domestic production is depleting. At the current rate of consumption and assuming no new reserves discoveries, sooner or later Indonesia will have to face deficit in gas supply. This study, is first aimed to forecast the Indonesia supply and demand situation of natural gas in years to come, and then performing an analysis and assessment toward the availability and adequacy of the required infrastructures especially receiving terminals facilitating for gas import in anticipation of future deficit of gas supply in Indonesia. From which, it will be further analyzed, the geographical distribution of the demand and then potential short of supply in several regions and areas where the demand are most concentrated. Thus few basis System Dynamics scenarios of public policies were simulated for 30 years running simulation. System Dynamics model simulation has been well known as a powerful tool to represent a complex industrial problems such as national energy systems. The result is unveiled the fact that additional import receiving terminals and storage facility is required at certain areas where the deficits most likely exist, and most of them in fact are in Western Zone of Indonesian.