The pace of shifting seasons in lakes

Abstract

Lake ecosystems are vulnerable to seasonal thermal cues, with subtle alterations in the timing of seasonal temperatures having a dramatic influence on aquatic species. Here, a measure of seasonal change in temperature is used to describe the pace of shifting seasons in lakes. Since 1980 spring and summer temperatures in Northern Hemisphere lakes have arrived earlier (2.0- and 4.3-days decade−1, respectively), whilst the arrival of autumn has been delayed (1.5-days decade−1) and the summer season lengthened (5.6-days decade−1). This century, under a high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenario, current spring and summer temperatures will arrive even earlier (3.3- and 8.3-days decade−1, respectively), autumn temperatures will arrive later (3.1-days decade−1), and the summer season will lengthen further (12.1-days decade−1). These seasonal alterations will be much slower under a low-greenhouse-gas-emission scenario. Changes in seasonal temperatures will benefit some species, by prolonging the growing season, but negatively impact others, by leading to phenological mismatches in critical activities.