Do Spatial Spillover Effects of Crime Matter in Urbanization and Crime Nexus? (Case Study: Iranian Provinces)

Abstract

However, urbanization can have positive effects on the labor force and economic growth in urban areas the unplanned and rapid pace of urbanization process can ultimately lead to unpleasant consequences including marginalization, unemployment, poverty, the emergence of slums and shanty towns and the prevalence of crime in urban areas. Therefore, the objective of this study was to investigate the spatial spillover effects of urbanization on crime in 30 Iranian provinces during the period from 2006 to 2015 using dynamic spatial panel data models. The results of the study revealed that urbanization had a positive and statistically significant impacts on crime per capita in Iranian provinces indicating an increase in urbanization enhances the crime level. In addition, unemployment rate, and human capital had significant and negative effects on crime in Iranian provinces, respectively. Finally, the crime per capita in a previous period exerted a significant positive effect on the current crime which stablished the dynamic nature of this phenomenon. Moreover, the results of the study demonstrated that increasing crime per capita in neighboring provinces could elevate the crime in a given province.