Evaluation of Biomass Fuel Supply as an Alternative Energy Source in the Cement Industry Using Forecasting Techniques

Abstract

The cement industry contributes approximately 7% to global carbon emissions, necessitating strategies to reduce these emissions, which significantly impact the environment. One potential approach is utilizing biomass fuels, such as rice husks, as an alternative to coal. The use of rice husks as a substitute fuel has already been implemented in the case study company to replace coal. This study investigates the application of forecasting to evaluate the availability of rice husks as fuel for the case study company, aiming to predict future availability based on historical data. The selected forecasting model, based on the lowest error rate, is the Trend- and Seasonality-Corrected Exponential Smoothing (Winter’s Model), which effectively identifies trends and seasonality in rice husk availability. With a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 16.18%, the forecast can be classified as good. Forecasting results indicate that the company can produce 390 million tons of clinker annually, with peak production occurring in April. Additionally, the use of rice husks enables the company to reduce CO2 emissions by up to 2%. However, there is a significant demand for rice husks in other industries, such as energy generation, ceramics, and iron production, which poses challenges for the company in securing a steady supply of rice husks. To sustain its CO2 reduction efforts, this study recommends exploring other alternative fuels to ensure long-term sustainability in reducing carbon emissions. Alternatives such as waste oil, plastics, meat and bone meal, and others should be considered to minimize reliance on coal. This study emphasizes the critical role of rice husk availability in carbon reduction strategies and underscores the importance of diversifying fuel options to achieve long-term sustainability in the cement industry.