Predicting specific mortality from laryngeal cancer based on competing risk model: a retrospective analysis based on the SEER database

Abstract

BACKGROUND Laryngeal carcinoma is one of the most common types of head and neck tumors. The mortality rate in patients with laryngeal cancer has not declined in recent years. Previous studies have shown that laryngeal cancer mortality is related to the extent of laryngeal cancer, the proportion of lymph node metastases, treatment modalities, and postoperative lifestyle habits. Thus, early identifying patients at high risk of laryngeal cancer-specific death is of great clinical importance. However, in the presence of competing risk, the existing survival models based on Cox proportional hazards model may be biased in estimating tumor-specific mortality. In this study, we developed and validated a nomogram based on competitive risk analysis for patients with laryngeal cancer. METHODS We used SEER*Stat (Version 4.6.1) software to identify patients in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database who were diagnosed with laryngeal cancer between 2000 and 2019 as study subjects. The collected data included demographic data, the primary site of laryngeal cancer, the histological type of tumor, tumor size, and other variables. After excluding cases with missing information, the entire cohort was randomly split into a training cohort and a validation cohort at a 7:3 ratio. The training cohort was used in building the model while the validation cohort was used to validate the model. Univariate and multivariate Fine&Gray regression analyses were used to screen statistically significant variables, and the model performance was measured by establishing a consistency index, receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), and calibration curves. RESULTS After excluding cases with missing information, 3,805 patients (2,264 in the training cohort and 1,141 in the validation cohort) were included in the study and followed for a median of 16 months. A total of 411 died of laryngeal cancer, and 2,104 patients died from other causes. Among 3,805 patients, the vast majority was male (80.9%), and Caucasian (77.2%), and aged 60-80 years old (58.4%). CONCLUSIONS Advanced age and keratinized SCC are risk factors for laryngeal cancer-specific death. These high-risk patients should be given more attention and closer monitoring in clinical practice.