Do votes matter? Voting weights and the success probability of member state requests in the Council of the European Union

Abstract

The impact of votes on Council decision-making is a widely studied subject. A large body of theory supports the contention that more votes, ceteris paribus, translate into more influence. Empirical studies have, however, shown a negative relationship between the voting power of a member state and its bargaining success. Based on a new data set, this study shows empirically that there is a robust positive relationship between the number of votes backing a member state request to change European legislation and its success probability. The analysis is based on all unique member state requests for exemptions, lower standards or longer transitional time periods in the field of environmental policy between the first wave of Eastern Enlargement in 2004 and the entry into force of the Lisbon treaty in 2009 (N = 216). It also shows that member state requests are often successful, contrary to the image of an unresponsive Brussels.