Analyzing the effectiveness of a multi-purpose dam using a system dynamics model

Abstract

The increasing frequency of extreme droughts and flash floods in recent years due to climate change has increased the interest in sustainable water use and efficient water resource management. Because the water resource sector is closely related to human activities and affected by interactions between the humanities and social sciences, there is a need for interdisciplinary research that can consider various elements, such as society and the economy. This study elucidates relationships within the social and hydrological systems and quantitatively analyzes the effects of a multi-purpose dam on the target society using a system dynamics model. A causal loop was used to identify causal relationships between the social and hydrological components of the target area, and a simulation model was constructed using the system dynamics technique. Additionally, climate change and socio-economic scenarios were applied to analyze the future effects of the multi-purpose dam on population change, the regional economy, water use, and flood damage prevention in the target area. The model proved reliable in predicting socio-economic changes in the target area and can be used to make decisions about efficient water resource management and water-resource-related facility planning.