Virtual water flows and drivers in the international trade of agricultural products of the regional comprehensive economic partnership

Abstract

The regional comprehensive economic partnership (RCEP) is today the largest free trade area in the world. This paper examines agricultural trade in the RCEP from 2010 to 2019 through the perspective of virtual water. And the drivers of the virtual water flow between China and the RCEP are also explored. The results are as follows: the virtual water flow during the study period was 2,576.51 billion m3. From a temporal perspective, the annual virtual water flow over the study period is characterized by a slow rise–significant fall–slow rise. It has the characteristics of concentration in spatial distribution and water resources and product structure. However, the concentration degree showed a downward trend during the study period. Then, we have divided the major trading into four categories based on whether there is a shortage of water on both sides of the trade. In terms of the drivers of virtual water flows between China and the RCEP, we have used the gravity model to arrive at the following findings: crop yields, bilateral economic scale, and agricultural labor resources are the main drivers. Our research results have reference values for adjusting bilateral agricultural trade and water conservation.