Discontinuities in vocational education and training: the influence of early-risk factors and personality constructs on premature training termination and subsequent trajectories

Abstract

Background: For adolescents, preventing a premature training termination (PTT) and withdrawal from education and training after a PTT is an important societal task. While studies reveal that early-risk factors such as a low educational background or selected personality constructs are relevant for predicting PTT, less is known about subsequent trajectories after a PTT and the factors that determine them. Methods: Using data from the German National Educational Panel Study, we examine the influence of early-risk factors and personality constructs on the first PTT (n = 4892) in the training course using a binomial logistic regression model. In a second step, by using a sequence and cluster analysis we explore subsequent trajectory patterns within 24 months after PTT (n = 944) and analyze the influence of early-risk factors and personality constructs on subsequent trajectory clusters after PTT. Results: We identify 7 different trajectory clusters, of which three clusters show risk-related trajectories (37.0%) with tendencies to withdraw from education and training. Furthermore, our analysis confirms the relevance of early-risk factors for predicting PTT as well as trajectories after PTT: a low educational qualification, graduation after more than the typical number of years, and low parental education increase the probability of discontinuities in adolescents’ educational and training paths. Additionally, it is important to consider the influence of personality traits on the subsequent trajectories: adolescents with strong openness tend to have continued school attendance after PTT, indicating a constructive career adaptation process, while adolescents with strong self-efficacy seem to assess their chances in the labor market as positive even without a vocational qualification. Conclusions: The longitudinal perspective on the consequences of a first termination of a VET program revealed that educational trajectories after a PTT are highly heterogeneous indicating the need for different types of policy measures to minimize the incidence of PTT and withdrawing from education and training.