Modeling the detection capability of the global IMS infrasound network

Abstract

The International Monitoring System (IMS) infrasound network is being deployed to ensure compliance with the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). Recent global scale observations recorded by this network confirm that its detection capability is highly variable in space and time. Previous studies estimated the radiated source energy from remote observations using empirical yield-scaling relations which account for the along-path stratospheric winds. Although these relations reduce the variance in the explosive energy yield estimates, large error remains. Today, numerical modeling techniques provide a basis to better predict the effects of the source and middle atmospheric dynamic parameters on propagation. In order to account for a realistic description of the dynamic structure of the atmosphere, model predictions are further enhanced by wind and temperature error distributions as measured by high-resolution middle atmospheric sounding techniques. In the context of the future verification of the CTBT, these predictions quantify uncertainties of the IMS infrasound network performance in higher resolution, and are helpful for the design and prioritizing maintenance of any arbitrary infrasound monitoring network.