Weather conditions and outdoor fall injuries in Northwestern Russia

Abstract

This study aimed to investigate associations between the weather conditions and the frequency of medically-treated, non-fatal accidental outdoor fall injuries (AOFIs) in a provincial region of Northwestern Russia. Data on all non-fatal AOFIs that occurred from January 2015 through June 2018 (N = 1125) were extracted from the population-based Shenkursk Injury Registry (SHIR). Associations between the weather conditions and AOFIs were investigated separately for the cold (15 October–14 April) and the warm (15 April–14 October) seasons. Negative binomial regression was used to investigate daily numbers of AOFIs in the cold season, while zero-inflated Poisson regression was used for the warm season. The mean daily number of AOFIs was 1.7 times higher in the cold season compared to the warm season (1.10 vs. 0.65, respectively). The most typical accident mechanism in the cold season was slipping (83%), whereas stepping wrong or stumbling over something was most common (49%) in the warm season. The highest mean daily incidence of AOFIs in the cold season (20.2 per 100,000 population) was observed on days when the ground surface was covered by compact or wet snow, air temperature ranged from −7.0◦ C to −0.7◦ C, and the amount of precipitation was above 0.4 mm. In the warm season, the highest mean daily incidence (7.0 per 100,000 population) was observed when the air temperature and atmospheric pressure were between 9.0◦ C and 15.1◦ C and 1003.6 to 1010.9 hPa, respectively. Along with local weather forecasts, broadcasting warnings about the increased risks of outdoor falls may serve as an effective AOFI prevention tool.