Assessing Concession Period Risks of Public-Private Partnership Infrastructure Projects Using FACULTY

Abstract

The concession period is critical to Public–Private Partnership (PPP) infrastructure project success because it defines how long private investors operate to recoup costs and earn returns. This study investigates risk factors affecting the concession period in Vietnam’s PPP infrastructure projects and introduces a novel evaluation method called FACULTY (Fuzzy AHP integrating Consequences, Uncertainty, and Likelihood Technology). The research objective is to identify which risks most significantly influence concession duration and to demonstrate an improved risk assessment approach. FACULTY combines fuzzy AHP with a traditional consequence-likelihood analysis to capture uncertainty in expert judgments. By surveying 90 PPP experts and analyzing 27 risk factors across five risk categories: construction, revenue, macroeconomic, political, and legal risks, this study identified the ten most critical concession period risks for PPP infrastructure projects. These include land acquisition, access, and compensation issues; construction cost overruns; schedule delays; design deficiencies; geological and site conditions risks; force majeure; traffic demand risk; environmental risks; population growth; and concession price risk. These findings indicate that land acquisition and construction-related risks dominate, reflecting persistent challenges in Vietnam’s infrastructure delivery. This study provides a comprehensive framework for understanding and addressing risks that influence the concession period, offering valuable insights for policymakers and practitioners aiming to optimize PPP project outcomes.