Identifying climate analogues for cities in Australia by a non-parametric approach using multi-ensemble, high-horizontal-resolution future climate projections by an atmospheric general circulation model, MRI-AGCM3.2H

Abstract

Climate analogues for 17 Australian cities in the current climate (1979–2003) were identified by using a nonparametric climate analogue approach and multi-ensemble future climate projections in the late 21st century (2075– 2099) made with the Meteorological Research Institute’s atmospheric general circulation model, version 3.2H under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1B scenario with a horizontal resolution of about 60 km. By using this approach, climate analogue cities could be identified within the uncertainties of the multi-ensemble future climate projections. A similarity score as a metric of climate analogue is evaluated with the threshold as the quantified uncertainties in nonparametric manner. Ten of the identified climate analogue cities were in Australia, even in a global search, and the other seven analogue cities were in other continents: five in Africa, one in Mexico, and one in Argentina. In an in-country search, climate analogues for the seven target cities whose climate analogues were identified in other parts of the world in the global search were identified in Australia, although the similarity scores were low. Very low similarity scores imply that the future climate of the target city will be novel, that is, a climate that no city is currently experiencing.