Present, past and future precipitation: can we trust the models?

Abstract

Results of several current atmospheric general circulation models were compared. The models show poor skill in reproducing observed precipitation, and differ considerably in their precipitation forecasts for the doubled CO2 world. Driven by the approximately modified insolation impact, the are unable to simulate an onset of a glaciation. Improved representation of oceanic heat and mass transports is necessary for reliable prediction of future precipitation shifts. -Author