Prediction of specific gravity of Afghan coal based on conventional coal properties by stepwise regression and random forest

Abstract

Coal can be considered as the main fuel for electricity generation in Afghanistan. However, there is a quite limited data available about the overall quality, distribution, and character of coals in Afghanistan. Specific gravity (S.G) of coal as a key factor can be used for the estimation of potential tonnage production and be a fundamental parameter for the selection of coal washery process method. However, there is no investigation which comprehensively explores relationships between S.G and coal properties. In this investigation, the potential of S.G prediction based on conventional properties for Afghan coal samples was explored by stepwise regression and random forest. Pearson correlation (r) and variable importance measurement (VIM) of random forest (RF) were applied to select the most effective variables among conventional parameters for the S.G prediction. Results of VIM indicated that ash and carbon content of coal samples had the highest importance for the S.G prediction. Stepwise regression and RF models were developed based on these two coal variables. Testing the generated models indicated that S.G of Afghan coals can quite accurately predict by these models (R2 > 0.90). Modeling outcomes showed that the highest S.G (S.G > 2) for Afghan coal occurred when ash was higher than 40% and carbon was lower than 30%.