Synthetic Data Generation for Machine Learning-Based Hazard Prediction in Area-Based Speed Control Systems

Abstract

This work focuses on the possibilities of generating synthetic data for machine learning in hazard prediction in area-based speed monitoring systems. The purpose of the research conducted was to develop a methodology for generating realistic synthetic data to support the design of a continuous vehicle speed monitoring system to minimize the risk of traffic accidents caused by speeding. The SUMO traffic simulator was used to model driver behavior in the analyzed area and within a given road network. Data from OpenStreetMap and field measurements from over a dozen speed detectors were integrated. Preliminary tests were carried out to record vehicle speeds. Based on these data, several simulation scenarios were run and compared to real-world observations using average speed, the percentage of speed limit violations, root mean square error (RMSE), and percentage compliance. A new metric, the Combined Speed Accuracy Score (CSAS), has been introduced to assess the consistency of simulation results with real-world data. For this study, a basic hazard prediction model was developed using LoRaWAN sensor network data and environmental contextual variables, including time, weather, location, and accident history. The research results in a method for evaluating and selecting the simulation scenario that best represents reality and drivers’ propensities to exceed speed limits. The results and findings demonstrate that it is possible to produce synthetic data with a level of agreement exceeding 90% with real data. Thus, it was shown that it is possible to generate synthetic data for machine learning in hazard prediction for area-based speed control systems using traffic simulators.