Technological development and the labour market: How susceptible are jobs to automation in hungary in the international comparison?

Abstract

In our study, we analyse data from the Hungarian Microcensus (2016) in order to map the proportion of Hungarian jobs threatened by the spread of automation. In doing so, we use the internationally well-known methodology of Carl Benedict Frey and Michael A. Osborne who estimated the probability of computerization for 702 occupations. The analysis was then repeated by Panarinen and Rouvinen for the Finnish labour market by converting the probabilities defined for the US occupational statistics to the European International Standard Classification of Occupations. Similar calculations were conducted for the Swedish and Norwegian labour markets. According to our results, almost every second Hungarian employee (44%) works in a job that is threatened by the development of digital technologies. The same ratio is 47% in the US and 53% in Sweden, while it is much lower in Finland (35%) and Norway (33%). It is especially alarming that 13% of the Hungarian workforce (i.e., almost 600,000 employees) works in an occupation where the probability of computerization is above 95%, while the number of those working in occupations where the same ratio is above 90% exceeds one million (i.e., 25% of the total Hungarian labour force). Diving deeper into the analysis, we can state that those with higher educational qualifications are more likely to work in an occupation that is more protected against computerization. Overall, there are no significant differences in the probability of computerization by gender; however, women are over-represented in the most endangered occupations.