Winning is the only thing: election outcomes, satisfaction with democracy and political trust among populist voters in Europe

Abstract

Recent comparative and single-case studies have investigated the link between the electoral performance of populist parties and the political attitudes and behaviors of populist voters. However, they have not addressed what happens to populist voters’ satisfaction with democracy and political trust when populist parties gain representation in parliament or join cabinets across countries and over time in Europe. This study argues that there are two possible expectations. According to a ‘winner-loser’ mechanism, populist voters’ political trust and satisfaction might increase, thus bridging the gap with mainstream voters. Conversely, according to a ‘spiral of distrust’ mechanism, populist parties fuel discontent and populist voters’ political trust and satisfaction might decrease. Analyses of nine rounds of the European Social Survey from 22 countries and LISS panel data from the Netherlands find that voters of populist parties have less satisfaction with democracy, and less trust in parliament and politicians than voters of mainstream parties. However, these differences narrow over time when populist parties gain seats in parliament and enter the cabinet. This article shows that voters for populist parties might be ‘losers in disguise’ and that the performance of the parties they support serves as a corrective mechanism for their political dissatisfaction and distrust.