Combined Modeling of Projected Evaluation of the Regional Socio-economic Development

Abstract

Purpose: The article reveals the authors' approach to forecast the socio-economic development of a region. Design/Methodology/Approach: The framework of this approach envisages the construction of three interrelated models: a matrix predictor, an autoregressive model, and a binary choice logit model. This approach ensures an adequate reproduction of the systemic dynamics of indicators of regional socio-economic development. Findings: Authors' models require their implementation in the state management function of the regional economy and testing with specific examples illustrating opportunities of multidimensional economic and mathematical modeling of difficult socio-economic phenomena and processes. Practical implications: Authors' development represents a conceptual foundation for the development of digital regional socio-economic monitoring systems providing an opportunity for a qualitative increase in the reliability and relevance of prognostic parameters. Originality/Value: The contribution of the article is assessment of an opportunity to model the dynamics of multidimensional processes with the perspective to build a combined forecast model of the socio-economic development of the region, providing for the implementation of multivariate forecast calculations.