Perception of overlap in multi-modal urban transit route choice

Abstract

Capturing unobserved correlation between overlapping routes is a non-trivial problem in route choice modelling. For urban transit networks, research so far has been inconclusive on how this overlap is perceived by travellers. We estimate a series of path size correction logit (PSCL) models to account for alternative specifications of route overlap, including a new definition of overlap in terms of transfer nodes is proposed for multi-leg journeys. Our estimation is performed on smart card data from Amsterdam. The results indicate that the overlap between transit routes is valued positively when incorporated using either link-based, leg-based or transfer node-based PSC individually, with the transfer node-based PSC resulting in the best model fit. When considered simultaneously, the overlap of transfer nodes is valued positively by the travellers, but the subsequent overlap of journey legs is valued negatively, implying that travellers prefer having multiple (distinct) travel options at common transfer locations.